As the health of Hugo Chavez deteriorated at the turn of 2013, the momentum of the Latin American left faced its toughest battle to maintain its dominance over Andean politics. In the post-Chavez era, Venezuela has struggled to present a stable economic model and has failed to curtail the growing discontent amongst its citizens.
Rafael Correa, 51, has embarked on his own Bolivarian revolution for the people of Ecuador – and with surprising ease. His two Presidential victories came with a resounding defeat of the Right, gaining over double the percentage points of his nearest rivals.
In addition, the victory brought a welcome stability that is alien to Ecuador, a country that had eight different leaders between 1996 and 2006. Now - only a year after his landslide re-election – he faces an unprecedented crisis.
Sunday 23rd February 2014 saw Ecuadorians across the nation decide their Mayors. This occasion marked a watershed moment in the Presidency of Rafael Correa. February’s ballot boxes revealed several cities - including the capital Quito - turned away from Mr Correa and his socialist government.
The crucial capital city was taken by Mauricio Rodas - of the Alianza SUMA-VIVE party - by a resounding 58% to 37%. The opposition parties also secured victory in Cuenca, Ecuador’s third city. These triumphs combine with the Partido Social Cristiano, the current holders of Guayaquil.
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Mauricio Rodas, the new Mayor of Quito.
The victory in the nation’s largest populated city, led by Jaime Nebot, means the right wing parties of Ecuador now have control in the three principal cities of Ecuador.
Rafael Correa stormed to power in 2007 promising large scale reform in social services and to overturn a growing debt crisis.
Correa is not one to shy away from controversy. As education programmes have flourished and many have witnessed vast improvements in their standards of living, many condemn the tightening of press freedoms and human rights.
One of the first acts of the administration was to create an entirely new Constitution, Ecuador’s 20th in its history. He reiterated his aim was to eliminate corruption and neo-liberal values.
What remains is a constitution that now invests significantly more power in the Head of State. The executive holds increasing sovereignty over the Central Bank; he is able to dissolve Congress once each term and can rule by emergency decree.
Despite the alarming consolidation of power and diminishing checks and balances, the Ecuadorean electorate approved the constitution in a national referendum, with the Yes campaign gaining 64% of the vote.
Perhaps the most heartfelt dissent movement under the Correa administration has been the Yasuni ITT-Initiative’s breakdown.
The initiative was introduced to protect the wildlife and eco-system of an internationally recognised World Heritage site. Relying on international funding, Correa pulled the plug on the program, citing a lack of investment.
After penning landmark amendments into the 2008 constitution to protect natural rights, Correa’s decision angered a large proportion of voters, leading to widespread campaigns and international outcry.
In the outcome of consistent manipulations of power, it is clear Ecuadorian voters are losing patience with Correa. The 2014 Mayoral elections served as the prime opportunity for voters to voice anger and discontent.
Now, the fear factor of those results may have ruffled parliamentary feathers. Such is the level of panic brought in by these defeats of the government; legislation was drafted in March by a member of the Partido Socialista-Frente Amplio, Fabian Solano, to change the constitution in favour of a longer term for Mr Correa.
Like the United States, Ecuadorian law stipulates a President cannot serve longer than two four-year terms. Arguably, Correa is already in breach of this ruling. After ratifying the new constitution in 2008, Correa restarted his first term, adding two more years to his Presidency. His current term is due to finish in 2017 – the longest any Ecuadorian president has ever served.
In June, Correa explicitly stated he wanted the option for all elected officials to be able to serve ‘infinite’ amounts of terms.
The verdict now hangs in the balance. The fate of this ruling is now with the Constitutional Court, who must decide whether the votes will by cast by legislators or by national referendum. Undoubtedly, Correa will prefer the parliamentary route – where his governing party Alianza PAIS party holds 100 of the 137 seats.
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The Yasuni National Park remains one of the finest works of nature on Earth.
Either way, a once calm and collected leader - who adamantly declared his foes ‘could sleep in peace’ after his final term in office - is now drawn back into political framework once more.
March’s elections indicate that perhaps Correa is the only man to maintain power for his party, leaving a sense of urgency amongst his representatives that his party may not be victorious come the next presidential elections.
Ecuador’s political climate looks set for one of its most captivating elections to date in 2016.
